As you iterate on a pathway, results are immediately shown on visualisations that help you understand…
- If your pathway is within carbon budget* and in line with keeping the world within 1.5C increase (a negative result means the carbon budget has been exceeded by 2050)
- If and when net-zero emissions are achieved to help inform your net-zero and interim emission reduction targets
- The impact in each intervention area to help you understand which has the biggest impact and where to focus on to improve outcomes
Policy contexts
The pathway results are visualised across three policy contexts (Current settings, Intermediate, and Aggressive), to show how external factors and policies from NSW State or Federal Governments may affect your pathway. Specifically…
- Electricity decarbonisation (grid emission factor)
- Hydrogen uptake (hydrogen and renewable gas)
- Petrol vehicle fuel efficiency standards
Kinesis has researched and modeled how these external factors may affect your local pathway across three different policy contexts. The assumptions used are as follows.
Electricity decarbonisation
Emission factors in kg CO₂-e/kWh
| Policy context | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| Current settings | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Intermediate | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Aggressive | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Source:
- NSW DPE correspondence based on AEMO ISP, NSW DPE (NSW electricity strategy, Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, ESS amendment and peak demand scheme implemented) and Commonwealth emissions factors
Hydrogen uptake
Percentage of natural gas replaced with green hydrogen (%)
| Policy context | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| Current settings | 0 | 50 | 50 |
| Intermediate | 0 | 50 | 100 |
| Aggressive | 0 | 100 | 100 |
Sources:
- NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap (2020)
- Finkel Review (2017) Independent Review into the Future Security of the Electricity Market
- ITP Thermal (2018) Comparison of dispatchable renewable electricity options
- COAG National Hydrogen Strategy Workplan (2018)
Petrol vehicle fuel efficiency standards
Emission factors in kg CO₂-e/km
| Policy context | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| Current settings | 0.253 | 0.217 | 0.129 |
| Intermediate | 0.253 | 0.147 | 0.129 |
| Aggressive | 0.253 | 0.105 | 0.105 |
Source:
- Climate Change Authority (2014) Light Vehicle Emissions Standards for Australia
The policy context affects the impact of your interventions. For example, as the grid decarbonises, the effect of stationary energy efficiency interventions will decrease, and conversely the effect of switching from fuel to electric vehicles will increase.
When looking at the individual impact of interventions you can toggle between the three different policy contexts to see how they impact the result.
Further analysis
To see results in greater detail, you can publish the pathway to a workspace, see here.
Alternativley, can download the complete data for more details and to compare a pathway with alternatives.
Kinesis is also working on a supporting workbook to help users analyse this data further.
*The carbon budget presented in the pathway calculator is based on 10 years of 2017 emissions, adjusted to account for the growth that is expected in each suburb and LGA. This is based on the 2018, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SR15 (Special Report), also known as the Global Warming of 1.5 Degree report (www.ipcc.ch/sr15).